《machine learning a probabilistic perspective》部分习题解答，持续更新中

Chapter 3

Ex 3.2 Beta-Bernoulli模型的边缘似然函数

由3.3.4节得到，后验预测分布为
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则边际分布为
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Ex 3.3 Beta-Binomial模型的后验预测分布

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n = 1时
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Ex 3.4 Beta updating from censored likelihood

抛掷硬币5次，X为朝上次数。仅仅知道X < 3而不知道X的确切值，求相应后验概率（未归一化）结果为一个混合分布
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Ex 3.12 非共轭先验的Bernoulli分布参数的MAP估计

a

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b

当N很小时，采用a问题的先验可以得到比较好的估计，当N很大时采用Beta分布作为先验可以得到比较好的估计
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