《On Regular Investing》翻译与结构划分（01

为什么选择投资标的需要观察至少两个大周期？

短期内价格走向无法预判。

只有至少观察两个大周期后，才能判断该标的长期价格走向。

就这么朴素简单!

简单不意味着容易，做到就是比知道难。

唯有知行合一才能带来改变，否则什么阿猫阿狗都轻易成功，对我们这些认真践行的长期主义来说，天理何在？

且看今日文章。

原文:

There are several details in this chart that are worth looking at closely. For example, we can clearly see that, as I mentioned earlier, bear markets are much, much longer than bull markets.

Why do we need to emphasize at least two market cycles? Because many people misunderstand trends. They see that today's price is higher than yesterday's, and that yesterday's price was higher than the day before, and they think they have identified an "upward trend". They then erroneously assume that tomorrow's price will be higher than today's. But it's actually impossible to judge a trend in the short term, even over the course of one entire cycle.

Only after two full cycles can we make an accurate judgement about whether a trend is more likely to be upward or downward.

02. 翻译参考

这张图表中有几个细节值得仔细研究。 例如，我们可以清楚地看到，正如我前面提到的，熊市比牛市要长得多。

为什么我们需要强调至少两个市场周期？ 因为很多人误解了趋势。 他们看到今天的价格高于昨天的价格，昨天的价格高于前一天，他们认为他们已经确定了一个“上升趋势”。 然后，他们错误地假设明天的价格将高于今天的价格。 但实际上不可能在短期内判断一种趋势，即使在整个周期的过程中也是如此。

只有经过两个完整的周期，我们才能准确地判断一种趋势是向上的还是向下的。