3.5 Planning poker
亚马逊里挑战产品和运营的方法论是 T-shirt Size Estimation。就是用 T 恤的尺寸来做评估。你要做这个东西可以，但是产品和运营必须得拿出证据说明你要做的这个东西是什么样尺寸的。比如说 XXL 可以带来一百万人民币或一百万用户受益的，XL 就是 50 万，L 是 25 万，这样砍下去，然后这些需求给到技术团队，这边技术团队也会做个评估。XXL 是要六个月做完，XL 是三个月，L 是一个月，M 是两周，S 是一周。这样两边一对。如果说业务影响力比较高，而且技术实施比较轻，这就是小而美，那就是最高优先级；如果是反过来，技术这边要花好大的力气，业务影响力又不是特别高，那就坚定不移地把它砍掉；如果两个都是中等，那就是自由行事；如果两个都是 XXL 的话，那能不能需求这边降低一个维度。比如将 XXL 降到 XL，我这边可以降好几个档次，两三个星期就可以实现出来，这样可能会是一个比较好的方式。
The meeting proceeds as follows:
- A Moderator, who will not play, chairs the meeting.
- The Product Manager provides a short overview of one user story to be estimated. The team is given an opportunity to ask questions and discuss to clarify assumptions and risks. A summary of the discussion is recorded by the Project Manager.
- Each individual lays a card face down representing their estimate for the story. Units used vary - they can be days duration, ideal days orstory points. During discussion, numbers must not be mentioned at all in relation to feature size to avoidanchoring.
- Everyone calls their cards simultaneously by turning them over.
- People with high estimates and low estimates are given asoap boxto offer their justification for their estimate and then discussion continues.
- Repeat the estimation process until a consensus is reached. The developer who was likely to own the deliverable has a large portion of the "consensus vote", although the Moderator can negotiate the consensus.
- To ensure that discussion is structured; the Moderator or the Project Manager may at any point turn over the egg timer and when it runs out all discussion must cease and another round of poker is played. The structure in the conversation is re-introduced by the soap boxes.
